Talk:Gift of the Traveler/Drop rate
Traveler Locations History[edit]
Would it be appropriate to make a page which chronicles where Nicholas has been in the past and what he has requested? Jvinniec 21:49 April 24, 2009
- Like, say, Nicholas the Traveler/Research ? Backsword 22:05, 24 April 2009 (UTC)
I uploaded a pic of my VDS, don't really know how to put it on the table: http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/File:Vamperic_Dragon_Sword.png Eric368 16:35, 27 April 2009 (UTC)
- The .png file should be the icon from storage either captured transparent with texmod, or extracted from the .dat file. -- Wyn 16:57, 27 April 2009 (UTC)
Pix vs Text?[edit]
Wasn't the original design for this table supposed to have pictures of possible prizes at the top and text at the bottom? (Since I don't know all the possible items, I find the text still helpful.) Would it be okay if we replaced one of the header rows with text again? (Or perhaps people would prefer both text and pix above the totals at the bottom.) Tennessee Ernie Ford 00:27, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
- It's not a good idea to have text anywhere in the table. It enlarges the whole table horizontally, because text needs more space than pictures. That'd make it even more hard to read than it is now. However, if you hover your cursor over a picture, you should see a caption containing both the name and quantity of the item. --Adul 13:11, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
section for those that are bad @ wiki code[edit]
I'm posting here cos I'm bad at putting things into that table.. anyways, spent 100's of thousands of k on these....(now i'm broke) and here's what i got:
- 40 mercantile summoning stones
- 20 hunter's ales
- 20 cottontail tonics
- 30 Aged hunter's ales
- 40 Honeycombs
- 20 red rock candies
- 20 green rock candies
- 35 blue rock candies
- 50 Sparklers
- 50 bottle rockets
- 70 mysterious tonics
- 50 mysterious summoning stones
- 10 jars of honey
- 60 champagne poppers
- 10 crates of fireworks
- 3 disco balls
- 1 Vampiric dragon sword
Forgot to sign...--WikiWu 07:50, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
- Thanks, added to the table. Nate 13:30, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
I am also bad @ wiki code....my 5 gifts....could someone please add?
- 2 Aged hunter's ales(20)
- 1 blue rock candies(5)
- 1 Honeycombs(10)
- 1 Sparklers(10)
Rock2001c 14:38, 1 May 2009 (UTC)
ya just to give you all a heads up i probably messed up something on the page so some one who is good at wikicode should take a look at it to make sure its fine thanks in advance Gw Squirrel 21:45, 19 May 2009 (UTC)
Sorry, Also no good at wiki code. 20 Gifts as follows:
- 4 Mysterious Tonics (20)
- 3 Mysterious Summoning Stones (15)
- 2 Champagne Poppers (20)
- 2 Keg of Aged Hunter's Ale (2)
- 1 Bottle Rockets (10)
- 1 Hunter's Ales (10)
- 1 Jars of Honey (10)
- 1 Sparklers (10)
- 1 Aged Hunter's Ale (10)
- 1 Blue Rock Candies (5)
- 1 Red Rock Candies (5)
- 1 Mercantile Summoning Stones (5)
- 1 Cottontail Tonics (5)
Planning on buying 200 gifts soon (1 million gold worth @ 5k each) and will post findings once that is done. ~~Thizzzguy 6:30AM PT, 13 July 2009
219 gifts
- 34 Mysterious Tonics (170)
- 20 Mysterious Summoning Stones (100)
- 17 Sparklers (170)
- 14 Red Rock Candies (70)
- 14 Green Rock Candies(70)
- 13 Bottle Rockets (130)
- 12 Champagne Poppers (120)
- 12 Cottontail Tonics (60)
- 11 Honeycombs (110)
- 11 Mercantile Summoning Stones (55)
- 11 Jars of Honey (110)
- 9 Blue Rock Candies (45)
- 9 Aged Hunters Ale (90)
- 9 Keg of Aged Hunters Ale (9)
- 8 Hunters Ale (80)
- 8 Disco Balls (24)
- 6 Crates of Fireworks (30)
- 1 Everlasting Crate of Fireworks (1)
Thizzzguy 14 July 2009 23:36 UTC
I haven't been counting consumables, except for kegs.
- 11 Kegs of Aged Hunters Ale (sold 1)
- 1 Professor Yakkington
- 1 Traveler's Bo Staff
Ramei Arashi 14:15, 22 October 2009 (UTC)
Adding more data[edit]
If you already have some data in the table, and later get more of the gifts, would it be better to go back and edit your original entry, or add a new line?
Oops, Anghara 14:18, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
- You're probably less likely to make an error with a new line. and if you do make an error on a new line, it only invalidates part of your data.--JonTheMon 14:18, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
- Better to edit your own line, as stated in the header, to keep the list short. (and, as someone like me will only condense the 2 lines to 1, the probability of making that error will remain the same) – josəph 05:33, 29 June 2009 (UTC)
missing pix[edit]
Can we try to take a screenie of the missing inventory items? (slapping myself with the used moss spider egg). Axlbert 16:08, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
- We need icons, not screenies. They will come, just be patient. -- Wyn 16:10, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
I just noticed, the first icon doesn't show up for me.. is it for everyone else or is that a bug? Slashy 19:26, 16 May 2009 (UTC)
Some odds, after 1000 gifts[edit]
(As of about 15 minutes before this post), there were 1006 entries (one user posted 81 count; the totals row is not quite up-to-date). And the percentages of drops based on type are as follows:
Type % Party 20.08% Drunk 15.71% Sweet 23.56% Summon Stone 34.79% Tonic 3.58% Mini 0.40% Weapon 1.69% Other 0.20%
Tennessee Ernie Ford 18:50, 2 May 2009 (UTC)
Everlasting Crate of Fireworks Column Needed[edit]
The main Gift of the Traveler article has 28 possible rewards listed. There are 27 reward columns in the table here. I think Everlasting Crate of Fireworks is missing. Would/Should some kind soul who's good at wiki tables add it? LicensedLuny 02:10, 3 May 2009 (UTC)
- Yes, it's needed, but it's gonna be painful to add. --JonTheMon 15:10, 5 May 2009 (UTC)
- I've taken the liberty to add the column for the Everlasting Fireworks. I've set all values to 0. I had to convert 5 weird lines, probably the aforementioned script made by someone. It screwed up the table it doesn't have the extra column.--Fogeltje 09:54, 10 May 2009 (UTC)
- Thank you! LicensedLuny 19:42, 11 May 2009 (UTC)
- I've taken the liberty to add the column for the Everlasting Fireworks. I've set all values to 0. I had to convert 5 weird lines, probably the aforementioned script made by someone. It screwed up the table it doesn't have the extra column.--Fogeltje 09:54, 10 May 2009 (UTC)
More instructions or an editing tutorial?[edit]
Should there be more instructions listed for entering data? Sort of, a wiki-table-editing tutorial. Or is there already such a thing we could link to? The only way I know to edit tables is to make or edit a copy with all the |'s and -'s. That's confusing at best and very easy to mess up. Sorry, my wiki knowledge is spotty. LicensedLuny 02:10, 3 May 2009 (UTC)
I agree that we need a "how to put in your own data" manual, I'm not that familiar with wiki and I think it is more than I that need a tutorial of some sort. (Kendil 15:01, 14 May 2009 (UTC))
After a bit trying I've managed to get my data right. It wasn't that hard, really... anyways here is a little short step to step guild on how to do:
First, copy someone elses data, preferably someone with low numbers (making it faster) and paste it in the bottom. Now comes the boring part; delete his data and replace it with zeroes, change his name for yours. When having a lot of zeroes, it is just to put in your data by replacing a few zeroes. Save page and you are done! (Kendil 18:40, 15 May 2009 (UTC))
- In lieu of copying the row of someone else and just replacing your data with it, you could use the template for it. How to use it is at Gift of the Traveler/Drop rate/line. It's been updated for everlasting fireworks. --JonTheMon 19:46, 15 May 2009 (UTC)
- Wow! That's awesome, thanks Jon! I didn't know about templates. If I may, I've a couple of suggestions. Using the template makes the total field gray - can that be changed to default background like the rest of the entries? While I did figure it out, perhaps a bit more explanation with examples for how to use that would help people. Using preview, I realized I had to put the new line entry in after my template - can the template include that, too? Finally, should there be a link to that on the top of the main page? But seriously, that's so much nicer than typing out my own line and getting all the 0's in the right place. Thanks!!! LicensedLuny 01:19, 19 May 2009 (UTC)
Move Total Rows to Top?[edit]
Would it be better to keep the total rows at the top of the table? It would be easier to see on loading the page, and it would cut down on users putting entries below the totals. (Apologies for the three new sections, but I had three questions all at once.) LicensedLuny 02:10, 3 May 2009 (UTC)
Perl script for formatting a line[edit]
I used this to create my line, and thought someone else may find it useful too. Once the numeric values are filled in on the lines following the "__DATA__" line, running the script leaves the line that needs to be inserted on the clipboard ready to paste (including the line total and the signature). Written for ActiveState's Perl on Windows.
use strict; use warnings; use Win32::Clipboard; my $clip = Win32::Clipboard(); my $total = 0; my $wikiline = ''; for (<DATA>) { chomp; next if $_ eq ''; my ($name,$count) = split(/:\s*/, $_); $count = 0 if $count eq ''; $total += $count; $wikiline .= '| ' . $count . ' |'; } $wikiline = '| ' . $total . ' |' . $wikiline . "| ~~~~\n|-\n"; $clip->Set($wikiline); __DATA__ Hunter's Ale:0 Aged Hunter's Ale:0 Keg of Aged Hunter's Ale:0 Champagne Popper:0 Bottle Rocket:0 Sparkler:0 Crate of Fireworks:0 Disco Ball:0 Jar of Honey:0 Honeycomb:0 Green Rock Candy:0 Blue Rock Candy:0 Red Rock Candy:0 Mysterious Summoning Stone:0 Mercantile Summoning Stone:0 Mysterious Tonic:0 Cottontail Tonic:0 Everlasting Cottontail Tonic:0 Miniature Gwen Doll:0 Miniature Yakkington:0 Miniature Brown Rabbit:0 Vampiric Dragon Sword:0 Traveler's Bo Staff:0 Traveler's Walking Stick:0 Icy Dragon Sword:0 Ascalon Razor:0 Moss Spider Egg:0 Everlasting Crate of Fireworks:0
Alara 04:55, 5 May 2009 (UTC)
- Updated to include the everlasting crate of fireworks Alara 10:20, 10 May 2009 (UTC)
- Updated to ignore any blank lines in the Data section. Alara 10:38, 10 May 2009 (UTC)
- Thanks for the script and the updates. Would it be better to use ~~~ at the end, rather than ~~~~? I've been leaving dateless sigs. I'm not sure if there's a standard. LicensedLuny 19:45, 11 May 2009 (UTC)
- Updated to ignore any blank lines in the Data section. Alara 10:38, 10 May 2009 (UTC)
Odd Entries[edit]
Some people added 9999 of one item to the list. Shouldn't they be removed, seeing how they're clearly false values? 145.94.74.23 13:17, 7 May 2009 (UTC)
- Yes, and reported for vandalism if it continues. --Lemming 14:27, 7 May 2009 (UTC)
Thanks[edit]
Wasn't sure where on this page to put this, so delete it if necessary. Big thanks to the guys'n'gals that started this and keep it up to date. I will start adding my drops as soon as I get home this evening. Will be great to see a better picture of percentages as time goes on. Keep up the great work =D Kayg 15:11, 12 May 2009 (UTC)
Average Gift Value?[edit]
Now that there is so much stats on the gift contents, is there any way of putting a ball-park figure on the average value of a gift (excluding the <1% items such as minis and weapons, I guess)?
I've seen the gifts trading for 8k, but if I were just to put a simplisitic 100g per title point on what I've received so far, I would put them at more like 3k. But this is ignoring stones and PvE boost factors which I've got no idea how to value.
Or maybe just an average title points stat? Kirbett 10:50, 27 May 2009 (UTC)
- I found this on the web, it calculates the actual value of the gift(including minis and stuff)to be 4394 gold a gift -- C4K3 11:28, 27 May 2009 (UTC)
- How did you find that? Very interesting! I note though that he's put no value on stones (20% of the drops) - I wonder if he was equally unable to value them, or if players generally just don't perceive them to be worth much at all? Also, if I drop the everlastings and minis from the table (<0.2% each), his estimated value comes back down to 2504g per gift. This suggests that paying much more than that is betting on verrryy long odds. Kirbett 12:03, 27 May 2009 (UTC)
- The author of that page actually already posted that link on the main talk page for the gifts here Talk:Gift_of_the_Traveler#Real_value_of_Gift, bare in mind it doesn't include values for the weapons, the percentages might be slightly out now, and the value for alcohol at 120 per point is quite hard to get imo. --Lemming 16:22, 27 May 2009 (UTC)
- How did you find that? Very interesting! I note though that he's put no value on stones (20% of the drops) - I wonder if he was equally unable to value them, or if players generally just don't perceive them to be worth much at all? Also, if I drop the everlastings and minis from the table (<0.2% each), his estimated value comes back down to 2504g per gift. This suggests that paying much more than that is betting on verrryy long odds. Kirbett 12:03, 27 May 2009 (UTC)
Totals and restart in interest of keeping page shorter[edit]
I was wondering if it might be okay to total up the entries to date and throw them onto a single line and then start adding individual entries from that point again. Just to make it so that you don't have to scroll down so far to get the the bottom and such. I am willing to total and edit the page if there is a consensus that it should be done Em Jae 04:49, 2 June 2009 (UTC)
- Seems like the table will eventually get too long, so yeah, maybe it should be archived somehow. I'd also argue for keeping the total rows at the top of the table rather than the bottom. LicensedLuny 07:40, 2 June 2009 (UTC)
- Speaking of the totals line, the percentage thing is screwing up. It seems to be taking the current column value and dividing it by the previous column value (ie, Moss Eggs column is at 4, Ascalon Razor column is at 5, percentage says its 80%, it should be at .14%). I don't know if it's bad wiki code or what, but because I am not experienced in things wiki, could someone who is look at it? ^^ Katherinezoltin 06:38, 14 June 2009 (UTC)
- Pulled and edited the whole lot into Excel and recalculated the percentages, should be correct now. The table size probably isn't helped by the fact that everytime ppl get a new set of 5, they're adding another row to the table, rather than updating their existing info, this sort of approach is making the table balloon immensely. --BramStoker (talk, contribs) 10:29, 14 June 2009 (UTC)
- That is probably so to avoid an occasional mistake altering the results too much. I'm all in favor of condensing all entries into one entry every once in a while though. --Adul 01:39, 15 June 2009 (UTC)
- One issue with that is when people mess up their lines. Should we just absorb those lines into an "archived total" line, or omit them, or what? --JonTheMon 14:02, 15 June 2009 (UTC)
- You could merge all IP totals into one and combine duplicates by the same person, I quite like seeing my own line though and what I have gotten so far personally. Have noticed the instruction at the top actually says to add a new line rather than update your existing, some users have 6 lines or more! --Lemming 01:37, 17 June 2009 (UTC)
- One issue with that is when people mess up their lines. Should we just absorb those lines into an "archived total" line, or omit them, or what? --JonTheMon 14:02, 15 June 2009 (UTC)
- That is probably so to avoid an occasional mistake altering the results too much. I'm all in favor of condensing all entries into one entry every once in a while though. --Adul 01:39, 15 June 2009 (UTC)
- Pulled and edited the whole lot into Excel and recalculated the percentages, should be correct now. The table size probably isn't helped by the fact that everytime ppl get a new set of 5, they're adding another row to the table, rather than updating their existing info, this sort of approach is making the table balloon immensely. --BramStoker (talk, contribs) 10:29, 14 June 2009 (UTC)
- Speaking of the totals line, the percentage thing is screwing up. It seems to be taking the current column value and dividing it by the previous column value (ie, Moss Eggs column is at 4, Ascalon Razor column is at 5, percentage says its 80%, it should be at .14%). I don't know if it's bad wiki code or what, but because I am not experienced in things wiki, could someone who is look at it? ^^ Katherinezoltin 06:38, 14 June 2009 (UTC)
Old Cottontail Tonic picture[edit]
It won't allow me to change it to newer one. - J.P.Talk 20:39, 16 June 2009 (UTC)
- Image caching issues. If it's not correct in a little over a day, try again. If that doesn't work, contact Emily. --JonTheMon 20:57, 16 June 2009 (UTC)
Shifting to One Line per User[edit]
It seems the consensus is now to have one line per user. Looked like Lemming miscounted some of my totals when he went through clearing dates, so I totaled mine from looking at an earlier revision. If we're keeping all the entries on the same line, that's even more incentive to use Gift of the Traveler/Drop rate/line. I'm way more likely to mess up the count if I have to keep track of columns. Does anyone good at wiki code/wiki standards know if we can change that template so the total box isn't gray? LicensedLuny 07:12, 20 June 2009 (UTC)
- If everyone used the Gift of the Traveler/Drop rate/line template it would look more professional with the greyed box. The problem is no-one knows it exists. I only noticed it because I saw someone had used that code in the edit box. – josəph 05:36, 29 June 2009 (UTC)
Make a headline every 25 rows[edit]
How about making a headline every 25 rows? Benefits: You would not need to scroll down the complete code as you only are editing the 25 line block in which you are; you don't need to load the complete code; you don't need to submit the complete code; (you can't screw the complete table at once). Disadvantages: There is a senseless menu in the top; the table gets a bit longer; senseless headlines are in the table every 25 rows. What do you think? --Bruder Sammy 19:23, 18 July 2009 (UTC)
- Additionally/alternatively, it could also be considered to move the grand totals to the top. After all, they are the whole point of this page, and currently they are rather difficult to find or scroll down to. --Adul 08:46, 20 July 2009 (UTC)
- Something like this was on my mind: User:Bruder_Sammy/Drop_Rate. I didn't do it all the way through because we won't be able to just use it because of latest updates. --Bruder Sammy 18:30, 20 July 2009 (UTC)
Mis recording[edit]
Because some people are not recording numbers correctly, this table is pretty much void. If you cross check the totals you will find they are not correctly reporting the instances of getting the multiples of 5, but rather the total numbers they are getting. This invalidates the percentages. nvm, it was me trying to do math at 5:30 am :P -- Wyn 10:27, 19 July 2009 (UTC)
- Actually, I am finding some incorrect totals myself. I was trying to update the totals today, and I came up with 5204 when adding up the first column. However, when adding up all the gifts that have been reported, I only come up with 5188. That's 16 gifts they are off by and it would take a while to go through and figure out who can't add. Maybe I'll let someone else update the totals. FloppyJoe 15:44, 19 September 2009 (UTC)
- I realized an easy way to figure out the miscalculations in excel, and have found 9 entries that are incorrect (some are over and some are under). I will change them to what they reported and write a note on their talk pages about the change. I figure that is reasonable. FloppyJoe 00:44, 21 September 2009 (UTC)
- Noticed Nero near the bottom is incorrect by saying he has opened 5. Only recorded 4. I am new to the wiki so can someone remove please :) --Fright01 23:48, 28 September 2009 (UTC)
- I'll update the totals in a bit. You'll find miscalculations every once in awhile, but hopefully the people that update the totals will fix them. It's just an approximation anyway, since the people that wiki their numbers are but a fraction of all the people getting gifts. FloppyJoe 00:47, 30 September 2009 (UTC)
- Noticed Nero near the bottom is incorrect by saying he has opened 5. Only recorded 4. I am new to the wiki so can someone remove please :) --Fright01 23:48, 28 September 2009 (UTC)
- I realized an easy way to figure out the miscalculations in excel, and have found 9 entries that are incorrect (some are over and some are under). I will change them to what they reported and write a note on their talk pages about the change. I figure that is reasonable. FloppyJoe 00:44, 21 September 2009 (UTC)
Moving totals to the top[edit]
If there are no objections, I will soon move the totals to the top. Reason: the point of this table is to record the percentages of the GotT drops, and thus they should be easier to find. --Adul 11:30, 3 August 2009 (UTC)
- It's convention to leave them at the bottom. King Neoterikos 11:33, 3 August 2009 (UTC)
- Where? Could you please refer to the page where that is discussed? --Adul 12:14, 3 August 2009 (UTC)
I had something like this in mind. I'm rather happy with the way it turned out, but I'm open to suggestions. Also, please denote whether you like the old one or the new one better, or how you'd want to see it improved. --Adul 11:06, 6 August 2009 (UTC)
- Who is in charge of this page, the people that do the totals and such? Perhaps they should decide what way to do it? I looked at Adul's Table and it looks great IMO. Em Jae 04:30, 19 August 2009 (UTC)
I've gone ahead and moved it. It's not like it's permanent. If someone feels like the old layout was better, this is the right place to discuss it. There was a lack of discussion on this topic in the first place, so I figured nobody would mind if I did it. --Adul 09:34, 19 August 2009 (UTC)
- I like way more this way! Thank you very much. BTW: Is it just me or are the totals really not updated at least since beginning fo August? --Bruder Sammy 18:46, 22 August 2009 (UTC)
Multiplied?[edit]
Can someone check the second to last line by "Aleron Gabriel"? I'm pretty sure it's not supposed to be like that (considering there are 250 reported gifts opened and well over that number on the table's values.) I would do it myself, but I wish not to confound the table any. Thanks! --Curin Derwin 23:55, 9 October 2009 (UTC)
Synapse's line obviously has flawed/false data as well. I'm removing it. --Adul 13:14, 11 October 2009 (UTC)
Automatic Totals[edit]
I noticed that the totals were updated manually by some users, and thought it might be convenient for the table to update itself (especially as large as it is). I made a test\sample in my sandbox. Anyone else think this would be good for the page? -- Cat Slayer Calli 22:34, 8 December 2009 (UTC)
- I think it would be great for the page! I'd like to see it over at the Gifts of the Huntsman page as well. Aleron Gabriel 23:56, 8 December 2009 (UTC)
- I just upgraded the Gift of the Huntsman/Drop rate page to model this one. BOTNGiggles 05:43, 3 October 2010 (UTC)
Updated totals[edit]
OK, the totals were seriously out of date, to the tune of four months. During those four months, the contributors added about 2000 gifts.
Because of the out-of-date-ness, I built a little Python script to compile the new totals part from the current user data. Unless someone seriously objects, I'll try to run this once a week, probably sometime on Sunday, to update the totals.
Enjoy! Cynique 11:42, 23 January 2011 (UTC)
- As an FYI, comparing my result from about 14k gifts (compared to over 18k now), the percents are pretty much the same (maybe a tiny bit higher for some of the minis). In other words, that's strong evidence that ANet has not noticeably changed the drop rates for this gift since its introduction. — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 04:10, 5 August 2011 (UTC)
In Theory.[edit]
In theory, wouldn't this table be subject to assumption that it's information is void? You don't have 100% reliability that people reported thier results, and as such there is no real ability to claim that this control group is perfect.
Breaking it down to simpler terms, I could do this:
I go and start buying gifts, as I literally just did. I go and miss this wiki page completely. I open all 5 gifts I purchased. I move on, and forget what I got completely.
That proves that there are abilities to fault in what rewards are obtained. Now, I will respect what was found and what work went into it, and I will use it as a general consensus, but I'd rather see some comfirmation from the people who set it themselves. I'm not trusting that there is literally a <1% chance for a weapon and then that <1% is /5 because of the variating weapons. But there is no plausible way to me to obtain confirmation from a developer, so I'll settle as such.
And, I don't work well with coding. So, I'll post here in hopes that someone notes it and adds.
5 gifts. 1 Mini Yakkington 1 Set of Sparklers [10 total] 1 Set of Hunter's Ale [10 total] 1 Set of Honeycombs [10 total] 1 Set of Bottle Rockets [10 total] Also, they were obtained in that order if it's relevant.
So, I hope you understand my concern based on that logic and that I got a Mini Yakkington on drop #1. I was excited to see that one, still not sure if I should test the waters with selling or dedicate it. Anywho, I don't want to insult or talk down to the users that participated in this - you guys did some amazing research as a community and I hope that you guys are very accurate in these findings. I wish you guys the best of luck getting what you want! [Accursed IDS being elusive...]Batl Skard 08:10, 5 September 2011 (UTC)
- Of course, as a definitive expression of the true drop rates, this table is not sufficient. It has a series of flaws (or potential flaws, anyway):
- The contributors are a self-selecting group, and consequently the rarest of stuff may be over-represented.
- Some individual contributors may have (most likely unintentionally) overrepresented their receipts by entering the number of items received rather than the number of sets received.
- These flaws (or similar ones) plague all statistically sampled surveys, along with the occasional problem of people being purposefully dishonest, which I suspect is generally not a problem here. After nearly 20,000 gifts opened and reported, the worst of these effects are likely to be sufficiently mitigated that the table is reasonably reliable.
- In summary: it's not perfect, but it represents better information than we will ever get "from the horse's mouth", so we go with it until and unless we get better information from somewhere else. For what it's worth, my reports are accurate but incomplete, but getting a mini Yakkington on your first gift ever opened is astonishing good fortune.
- Cynique 08:30, 5 September 2011 (UTC)
- Further note: an apparent suspicion that the figures are wrong because your very first gift opened was one of the very rarest results is just the Gambler's Fallacy operating in reverse. Sure, it's very unlikely, but it is just as unlikely that gift number 1000 is the mini Yakkington. (That you have one by gift 1000 is more likely, but only because there are 1000 chances to get it. Each individual gift, though, has the same very small chance of being that miniature.) Cynique 08:35, 5 September 2011 (UTC)
- Thanks for the astonishly quick reply :P
- Further note: an apparent suspicion that the figures are wrong because your very first gift opened was one of the very rarest results is just the Gambler's Fallacy operating in reverse. Sure, it's very unlikely, but it is just as unlikely that gift number 1000 is the mini Yakkington. (That you have one by gift 1000 is more likely, but only because there are 1000 chances to get it. Each individual gift, though, has the same very small chance of being that miniature.) Cynique 08:35, 5 September 2011 (UTC)
- I totally understand the concepts of Gambler's Fallacy, and the % chance being not a literal 1 in 3 for 33% but a chance that it can happen at any given time. I like to think of it as a sort of roulette [if I'm thinking of the right thing here]; you go and set a bunch of options. Then you spin the wheel [or make the Random Number Generator work]. Following, you see what you get and hope for the best. Simple as that. I just don't know what to substitute for "Percentile chance being the same everytime and not essentially stacking until you obtain one".
- But then again that's what a Random Number Generator means so I figure I'm more showing you that I comprehend, not showing you instead :P. I guess it's more of a "preparation if" the numbers turn out to not be .5 ish but instead are changed.
- " For what it's worth, my reports are accurate but incomplete, but getting a mini Yakkington on your first gift ever opened is astonishing good fortune." I think the first portion of your quote said it best, better than I definitely described. The reports I gave too, were indeed accurate. But, they obviously were incomplete, leading me to not be surprised if they turn out different, but leading you to believe I meant that I expected it to be different. Even with all those fancy words when I was more than half awake I still had trouble finding the right words XD. It's probably also human nature too added in. But I digress. Anywho, the full thing might be paraphrased somewhere, since I'm an aspiring game designer, if you'll allow. I already see where and how I can utilize that for a smart and yet funny comment. ^_^. "For what it's worth, my reports are accurate but incomplete, but getting ---- on your first ---- ever ---- is astonishing[ly] good fortune." I'll go back on topic now. xD Batl Skard 10:04, 5 September 2011 (UTC)
- All I meant by "my reports are accurate but incomplete" was that I have accurately reported the contents of each batch of gifts that I have reported, but I have not reported all of them. For example, I did not record anywhere the first few I did because I had not found this page at the time, and there has been at least one instance of me making notes of what I found, dead-tree style, but never transcribing the notes into the page. Cynique 11:09, 5 September 2011 (UTC)
- Given the results of the tabulated data, I should have 3 minipets, 5 moss spiders, and 25 assorted weapons. In all likelihood, the rarest items are over represented. I've been fortunate enough to get a few rarer items...weapons, an everlasting tonic, everlasting fireworks, and 3 moss spiders (one for each account). I've recorded my weekly results quite consistently for roughly 3 years, missing only a few weeks that I either didn't go get gifts or forgot to record the results (and obviously I didn't get anything memorable those times). From my sample of 2500 gifts, the results of the table are quite accurate, excepting those items which I would call rare items (everlasting tonic, everlasting fireworks, moss spider egg, and any of the weapons) which are about double my sample, and the ultra-rare items (minipets) which I have found none yet (making the odds greater than 1:2500 or 0.0004% for any of them). I would guess that like all voluntary surveys, the population that received rare items are much more likely to participate, so those rarest items will have higher representation among the contributed data. With the rare items, I would confidently conclude a reasonably accurate 0.12% chance of a rare item, while the minipet items are most certainly less than 0.02%. I'm sure that I've read somewhere on the wiki, or official site that an Arena Net representative had stated the "less than 0.02%" odds as well. Gwynna Vive 21:55, 22 January 2013 (UTC)
At last! (Update ahoy!)[edit]
Finally, after first writing a class in Java to process the data for Glad. boxes. I managed to finish and perfect a similar class for the GotT table. :)
Some thoughts:
- Interchangeable parameters! Y U WRECK MY HEAD?? but lol, seriously these were a pain to accommodate but yea, I DO have them catered for now so there is no need to to change or remove them.
- This might sound crazy but, a silly typo, occurring twice, once each in two different lines effectively broke my poor program, so yes I fixed it. :L What was it? They actually specified a given parameter but put no value for it! Not even a zero...since my class goes through the code/templates, etc of the table this was a problem. So I'll say nicely for anyone who might read this PLEASE, if you feel that you MUST use all parameters even when not all are taking a value above 0, do not forget to put zeroes after the equals sign for things you got none of. /line template on here doesn't care, but it's a pain in the ass for my program...I think I might be able to have a quick fix for this problem in the program itself should people make the silly mistake again but it really does seem like a lame thing to have to take into account. PalkiaX50 00:06, 25 January 2012 (UTC)
Archive?[edit]
Maybe archive most of the data into one consolidated block rather like Royal Gift/Drop rate? File:User Chieftain Alex Chieftain Signature.jpg Chieftain Alex 10:35, 12 May 2012 (UTC)
Odd calculation[edit]
How do the 100% split off into 1.75% + 1.69% + 1.05% + 1.69% + 1.63% + 1.69% + 1% + 0.93% + 1.71% + 1.7% + 1.55% + 1.7% + 1.72% + 4.8% + 1.8% + 4.72% + 1.73% + 0.02% + 0.01% + 0.02% + 0.01% + 0.07% + 0.09% + 0.07% + 0.05% + 0.06% + 0.07% + 0.01%? --90.135.197.59 17:03, 14 May 2012 (UTC)
New Drop tables for GW2 -- Performance?[edit]
I'm looking at some of what I'm seeing here for Gift of the Traveler, but I am forced to wonder -- how's it suit for server performance? I see you want users to reuse their rows. Is that for performance reasons, or for keeping the table to a manageable size? Work in progress, but what I'm working at is found here: gw2:User:Torrenal/Sandbox/Colorfull_Dye_Seed_Drops Torrenal 05:16, 8 June 2012 (UTC)
- Reusing rows keeps the table a manageable size, and helps to spot skewed data and vandalism. Once a wiki page grows beyond a certain file size, it can have issues in some browsers. Gwynna Vive 21:59, 22 January 2013 (UTC)
Drop Rate for minis[edit]
Just a quick note to say that I've opened on average 15 gifts per week for 6 years and in all that time have only received 3 minis - 2 Gwen dolls and 1 Yakkington. If you do the math on this it suggests that the drop rate for minis should be about 0.06, rather than the 0.12 % stated. At least this is rather more than the chance of getting peacekeeper minis through WiK random drops.
- Hmm I've only ever gotten 1 Gwen and 1 Mini Yakkington. I'm only doing 5 per week on one account. Should I have received more by now or am I just unlucky? --The preceding unsigned comment was added by 147.147.136.38 (talk) at 11:47, 12 February 2019 (UTC).